Suggested Citation:

Ocean Visions. (2025) Arctic Sea Ice Road Map: Potential approaches to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice. https://www2.oceanvisions.org/roadmaps/repair/ arctic-sea-ice/ Accessed [insert date].

Arctic Protection

Arctic Protection

State of Approach

Overview

Glossary of road map assessment parameters Description of approach 
  • Protection of the Arctic marine environment includes restrictions of human activities, such as through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). MPAs are area-based management tools defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as “a clearly defined geographical space, recognized, dedicated and managed, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the long-term conservation of nature with associated ecosystem services and cultural values” (IUCN WCPA 2018). MPAs generally limit or prohibit human activities within their boundaries and individual MPAs vary in their level of protection. Arctic MPAs have diverse objectives, locations, sizes, and outcomes (PAME 2021). 
  • The climate benefits of MPAs are still uncertain. So far MPAs have not been proven to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice, and MPAs will not change temperature trajectories. Offshore oil and gas bans may prevent further carbon emissions and protect benthic habitats. Restrictions on boating traffic from commercial fishing and shipping may keep ice intact, although this link has yet to be researched.  
  • Protecting marine ecosystems in the Arctic now will be important to safeguard ecosystems and promote resilience as other strategies are implemented to decrease temperatures and reverse the loss of Arctic sea ice.  
  • As Arctic sea ice continues to melt, Arctic marine ecosystems will come under increased threats from improved access to marine resources and shipping routes (Harris et al. 2017; although current changes in sea ice have reduced the shipping season in some areas (Cook et al. 2024)). Even if protecting areas within the Arctic does not directly affect sea ice or climate change trajectories, protection is vital to protect Arctic habitats and ensure sustainable use of marine resources (Harris et al. 2017).  
  • Global Choices has proposed the Central Arctic Ocean Ice Shield Moratorium, a 10-year prohibition of oil and gas exploration and extraction, deep sea mining, seismic testing, nuclear weapons testing, radioactive waste dumping, and new shipping lanes. The Moratorium is to prevent activities that will accelerate and intensify sea ice loss and climate change. They are also calling for the Central Arctic Ocean Ice Shield to be managed as a non-jurisdictional Global Commons. 
Description of what it does mechanistically  
  • Arctic MPAs have diverse objectives, locations, sizes, and outcomes (PAME 2021). In general, MPAs may protect ecosystems by preventing certain human activities such as disruption of the sea floor, extractive activities, and disruption due to shipping.  
Spatial extent (size)  
    • In total, only 5.24% of the Arctic marine area (935,778 km²) is currently protected (CAFF/PAME 2022).
    • Arctic marine area is estimated to be 18.4 million km² in size (CAFF/PAME 2022); 30% of that area is 5.5 million km² 
Where applied – vertically  
  • Ocean surface to benthos 
Where applied – geographically (regional vs global application, is it targeting the Arctic?) 
  • Ocean areas within the Arctic region 
When effective (summer, winter, all year)  
  • MPAs have so far not been proven as an approach to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice.
  • For the goal of protecting biodiversity, protection is effective all year, with other potential co-benefits.
 

Potential

Impact on

Albedo  
  • Unlikely to have an impact 
Temperature  
  • Global  
    • Unlikely to have an impact 
      • Protecting blue carbon species and the seafloor within MPAs globally may avoid CO2 emissions, protect stored carbon from being disturbed/released, and add to carbon removal by these ecosystems (Jankowska et al. 2022). However, the analysis in this study was not Arctic-specific. Also, the magnitude of this co-benefit is still poorly understood (Hiddink et al. 2023, Ovando et al. 2023). 
  • Arctic region  
    •  Unlikely to have an impact 
      • Protecting blue carbon species and the seafloor within MPAs globally may avoid CO2 emissions, protect stored carbon from being disturbed/released, and add to carbon removal by these ecosystems (Jankowska et al. 2022). However, the analysis in this study was not Arctic-specific. Also, the magnitude of this co-benefit is still poorly understood (Hiddink et al. 2023, Ovando et al. 2023). 
Radiation budget  
  • Global  
    • Unlikely to have an impact 
  • Arctic region  
    • Unlikely to have an impact 
Sea ice  
  • Direct or indirect impact on sea ice?  
    • Unknown 
  • New or old ice? 
    • Unknown 
  • Impact on sea ice 
    • Unknown 

Scalability  

Spatial scalability  
  • Can be scaled  
    • A review by the Arctic Council is underway to determine contributions from Other Effective Conservation Measures (OECMs) in the Arctic. OECMs are “a geographically defined area other than a protected area, which is governed and managed in ways that achieve positive and sustained long-term outcomes for the in-situ conservation of biodiversity, with associated ecosystem functions and services and where applicable, cultural, spiritual, socioeconomic, and other locally relevant values.” (PAME 2021). OECMs include areas conserved by Indigenous peoples (Lalonde 2022).  
Efficiency 
  • Unlikely to have a climate impact 
Timeline to scalability  
  • Unknown
    • Global target is for 30% of marine areas to be protected by 2030.
Timeline to global impact (has to be within 20 yrs)  
  • Unlikely to have a global climate impact 
Timeline to Arctic region impact (has to be within 20 yrs)  
  • Unlikely to have an Arctic region climate impact 

Cost 

Economic cost   CO2 footprint 

Technology readiness

TRL 
  • 9 – Marine protected areas are a well-established tool for protecting biodiversity. However, they may not be able to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice.  
Technology feasibility within 10 years 
  • Technically feasible for protecting biodiversity, climate benefits vary. 

Socio-ecological co-benefits and risks

Missing information in this section does not indicate the absence of risks or co-benefits; it simply reflects that sufficient information is not yet available. 

Physical and chemical changes  

  • Co-benefits 
    • Protection of habitat.
    • Potential for avoided carbon emissions through protection of blue carbon and seafloor ecosystems (Jankowska et al. 2022).
  • Risks 
    • Unlikely to have risks.

Impacts on species 

  • Co-benefits  
    • Reduction of stressors to species.
  • Risks  
    • Note: There are no ecological risks to MPAs – it is a no-regrets strategy ecologically.

Impacts on ecosystem 

  • Co-benefits  
    • Reduction of stressors to ecosystems.
  • Risks  
    • Note: There are no ecological risks to MPAs – it is a no-regrets strategy ecologically.

Impacts on society  

  • Co-benefits  
    • Provide reference sites for comparison to unprotected sites useful for learning and management (Wilson et al. 2020). 
  • Risks  
    • Potential for less access for people to marine resources.
    • Potential for decreased income and employment through the limitation of activities (Jankowska et al. 2022).
    • Could restrict freedom of the sea for MPAs established beyond national jurisdiction (Argüello 2021).

Ease of reversibility  

  • Easy

Risk of termination shock  

  • No risk

Governance considerations

International vs national jurisdiction  
  • National and international jurisdiction depending on location of marine protected area 
Existing governance  
  • National 
    • MPAs established within national jurisdiction are established and managed nationally. 
    • Indigenous-led management 
    • There is currently a voluntary ban on commercial fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean High Seas, the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean, otherwise known as the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA). Signatories include Canada, the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Denmark (in respect of the Faroe Islands and Greenland), the European Union, Iceland, Japan, the Kingdom of Norway, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. It will remain in effect until 2037. 
Justice 
  • Here we define justice related to approaches to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice through distributive justice, procedural justice, and restorative justice. Following COMEST (2023), we consider questions of ethics through a justice lens. Note that this is not an exhaustive list of justice dimensions and as the field advances, so will the related considerations and dimensions. 
  • Distributive justice  
    • The costs of implementing MPAs in the Arctic area will be largely focused on those who partake in activities restricted by the MPA. MPAs could also provide benefits for people living near the MPA through increased fishery benefits and opportunities to advance tourism associated with the MPA.  
    • In the Arctic, establishment of protected areas can place a disproportionate burden on Indigenous communities. Previous conservation efforts in the Arctic have led to forced removal and exclusion of Indigenous peoples and caused erasure of Indigenous ways of life (Buschman and Sudlovenick 2022).  
    • Indigenous-led management and conservation areas will be critical to distributive justice. Recent efforts to protect marine areas in the Arctic, such as the intent for management of Pikialasorsuaq and the designation of Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area in Canada highlight the leadership of Indigenous peoples in Arctic conservation (Buschman 2022). 
      • The 2022 Status and Trends for Arctic Conservation Measures report by the CAFF and PAME working groups of the Arctic Council states that “the role of Indigenous sustainable management practices, including Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas, and other Indigenous stewardship measures, and their contribution to effective marine stewardship will be explored in the Arctic context through this project, and could be expanded upon in future work by the Arctic Council”.
  • Procedural justice  
    • Procedural justice will vary by nation and the context of MPA implementation.  
    • Implementing the co-productive conservation framework outlined in Buschman (2022) is a way to ensure affected people have the opportunity to participate and partner at all stages of conservation. It includes co-planning, co-prioritizing, co-learning, co-managing, co-delivering, and co-assessing (Buschman 2022).  
  • Restorative justice  
    • Restorative justice will vary by nation and context of MPA implementation. 
    • There are examples globally of compensation programs that provide a social safety net for financial losses due to the cessation of extractive activities (Center for American Progress 2019).  
    • Indigenous-led management and conservation areas in the Arctic may fulfill outcomes of protection while also allowing for traditional use and stewardship of resources. 
Public engagement and perception 
  • Will vary by nation and context of MPA implementation 
    • In general, public engagement in MPA governance has increased over time.  
    • On a Pan-Arctic level, a principle of the PAME 2015 Framework for a Pan-Arctic Network of MPAs is to ensure openness and transparency of the MPA network planning processes, emphasize the benefits of marine conservation, and encourage public support. Enhancing public awareness is also one of the four goals of the pan-Arctic MPA network. There has not been an update to this document to know if this goal is being met.  
  • Generally high public support 
Engagement with Indigenous communities 
  • Protected area implementation in the Arctic has historically excluded Indigenous peoples, but today many Arctic conservation efforts are led by Indigenous peoples (Buschman 2022). The rights and sovereignty of Indigenous people are recognized and mentioned in documents supporting existing governance mechanisms mentioned above. 
  • The Inuit Circumpolar Council has several documents that provide guidance for working with Arctic Indigenous people in marine protection efforts including: 
    • Food sovereignty and self-governance: Inuit role in managing Arctic marine resources (ICC Alaska 2020)
    • Ethical and Equitable Engagement Synthesis Report (ICC 2021) 

Knowledge Gaps

Physical science / mechanism

  • Is there potential for protected areas specifically in the Arctic to have climate benefits? 
  • Does limiting shipping activity have an impact on Arctic sea ice extent?  
  • Would protecting regions from shipping traffic impact albedo?  
    • Does icebreaking increase ice cover because it exposes more surface area? Is that ice then younger and darker, decreasing albedo?  

Engineering needs (technical feasibility)

  • How can MPAs be enforced in remote areas? 

Governance

  • How can a pan-Arctic network of MPAs move forward given current limitations of the Arctic Council?  

First-Order Priorities

Research and development

  • Determine if there are potential climate impacts of Arctic MPAs, in particular for Arctic sea ice.  
  • Determine the relationship between shipping activity and Arctic sea ice extent, with respect to breaking up sea ice.

Enabling conditions

  • Implement an interconnected, transboundary, pan-Arctic MPA network to protect the globally unique marine Arctic area (Harris et al. 2017).
  • Further development of what priorities look like in different places for different actors will be needed.