Missing information in this section does not indicate the absence of risks or co-benefits; it simply reflects that sufficient information is not yet available.
Note: risks and co-benefits will depend on the method for blocking ice export, via ice thickening (see co-benefits and risks associated with ice thickening) or a physical barrier.
Physical and chemical changes
- Co-benefits
- Accumulation of ice may lower temperatures and facilitate growth of new ice.
- May alter ocean circulation if stratification patterns are changed; this could also be a risk depending on the direction and magnitude of change.
- Potential strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Increased export of sea ice in the Fram Strait in the past was associated with weakening of AMOC (Ionita et al. 2016).
- Risks
- May alter ocean circulation if stratification patterns are changed; this could also be a co-benefit depending on the direction and magnitude of change.
- Aerosols from ships or other infrastructure needed for this technology could impact the local climate.
Impacts on species
- Co-benefits
- Increase in sea ice extent in the Arctic may benefit sea ice associated species.
- Risks
- If a structure is used to block ice export, may impact movements of Arctic species.
- Blocking ice export may negatively impact ice-associated species south of the blockage that depend on drift ice.
Impacts on ecosystems
- Co-benefits
- Increase in sea ice extent in the Arctic may benefit sea ice associated species.
- Blocking sea ice export in Nares Strait could potentially facilitate stable ice conditions required for ice arch formation that may help to maintain Sarvarjuaq / Pikialasorsuaq polynya (an area of year-round open water surrounded by sea ice; see “Governance considerations” below).
- Risks
- Nares Strait is near Sarvarjuaq / Pikialasorsuaq, a polynya (an area of year-round open water surrounded by sea ice) with ecological importance (see “Governance considerations” below). It is an area that experiences upwelling and has high productivity. It is unknown if changing patterns of sea ice export could impact the polynya.
- Blocking ice export may negatively impact ecosystems south of the blockage that depend on drift ice.
Impacts on society
- Co-benefits
- Within the Nares Strait, the ice arch is an important area for people for traveling (ICC 2017) and stabilizing the ice arch may benefit travel.
- Potential for restoration and maintenance of Sarvarjuaq / Pikialasorsuaq polynya (an area of year-round open water surrounded by sea ice; see “Governance considerations”), facilitating biological productivity of hunting grounds and maintaining the ability to travel across the polynya.
- Risks
- Blocking an area could impact movement of people (likely more of a risk in the Nares Strait compared to the Fram Strait).
- Nares Strait is nearby Sarvarjuaq / Pikialasorsuaq polynya (an area of year-round open water surrounded by sea ice; see “Governance considerations”) that Inuit communities from Canada and Greenland rely on.
- Materials and infrastructure used to create the barrier could disturb the area and impact access.
Ease of reversibility
- Medium
- Removing the device blocking export would resume export of sea ice, but the ease of removal is unknown and depends on the method and mechanism used.
Risk of termination shock
- Medium
- A sudden export of sea ice may occur after the blocking device is removed. In the past, increases in sea ice export and freshening of surface waters have weakened the AMOC (Ionita et al. 2016).
- Atmospheric flow patterns play a role in sea ice dynamics. In previous periods in the Arctic when there was reduced winds, there was lower sea ice export in the Fram Strait and accumulation of sea ice (Ionita et al. 2016). As winds increased, sea ice export through the Fram Strait was enhanced, leading to enhanced freshwater input in the area that weakened the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) via decrease in salinity in Labrador Sea.
- A sudden export of sea ice may occur after the blocking device is removed. In the past, increases in sea ice export and freshening of surface waters have weakened the AMOC (Ionita et al. 2016).