Arctic Sea Ice Road Maps

First-Order Priorities

Research and development

  • Feingold et al. (2024) outlines physical science research needs for MCB.
  • A robust transdisciplinary scientific review process by a global body (UNEP 2023), similar to IPCC that would include regular updates, agreed-upon scenarios of SRM deployment for evaluation, and research into impacts of SRM on humans and natural ecosystems.
  • More interdisciplinary studies (Russell et al. 2012) are needed – and this requires also that different disciplines are appropriately aware of and can engage in studies of impacts (argument made by Zarnetske et al. 2021 for SAI).
  • Design experiments that look at the case with a cool planet but still high CO2 (Russell et al. 2012, McCormack et al. 2016).
    • How would cooler temperatures plus increased CO2 concentrations influence ocean uptake of CO2 and ocean acidification (McCormack et al. 2016)?
  • More perturbation-oriented field experiments are needed to fill gaps not addressed by analogues (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Determine if aerosol perturbations lead to cloud system responses that offset the effect of brightening clouds (Diamond et al. 2022). Need in situ and remote sensing measurements from small-scale outdoor experiments to inform cloud models. Feingold et al. (2024) provide more details on needed measurements.
  • Determine the spatiotemporal scale of clouds that would work for this technique (susceptible clouds) in order to determine if MCB could have a global impact (Diamond et al. 2022). If susceptible clouds do not exist on a large enough scale to have a global impact, MCB may still be viable for a regional scale (see Marine Cloud Brightening: Arctic). Need to quantify frequency of occurrence of susceptible clouds, their areal coverage, and nature of co-occurring aerosol conditions (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • Satellite/reanalysis studies of susceptible cloud regimes and their frequency of occurrence to address how well the radiative effect of a small-scale MCB experiment will scale up to the planetary scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Develop methods and appropriate timescales for observing the radiative effect of MCB (Diamond et al. 2022).
    • Leveraging satellite, aircraft, and surface remote sensing to investigate the detectability of changes in cloud albedo within the domain of the deliberate seeding experiment (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Routine modeling of real cases to evaluate and refine models, together with model intercomparison projects at the full range of scales from the cloud scale on up to the global scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Understand the impacts of salt addition to the marine boundary layer and subsequent impacts to coastal communities and ecosystems (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Assess the potential for negative remote effects due to large-scale circulation changes (Diamond et al. 2022, mentioned in Latham et al. 2012). This will require understanding atmospheric processes across space and time scales and will necessitate the development of advanced numerical models with improved representation of cloud, aerosol, and chemical processes as well as upgraded computational power and resources (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Laboratory experiments and new facilities to enhance the fidelity of model physics (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Analysis of existing data (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • SRM simultaneously alters top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation. Global cooling or warming is mostly based on TOA effects, but Arctic/regional effects will depend a lot on the surface forcing, including sea ice melting. How can we better estimate the impacts on sea ice?
  • Demonstration that generation and delivery of appropriately sized particles is possible (Diamond et al. 2022, also mentioned in Latham et al. 2012).
    • Requires technological and scientific advances to select desired aerosol size distributions. Controlled small-scale experimentation with deliberate particle release would be necessary to determine feasibility.
  • A small-scale field program to assess the generation of particles at the surface and their delivery into clouds (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Feingold et al. (2024) outlines physical science research needs for MCB.
  • A robust transdisciplinary scientific review process by a global body (UNEP 2023), similar to IPCC that would include regular updates, agreed-upon scenarios of SRM deployment for evaluation, and research into impacts of SRM on humans and natural ecosystems.
  • More interdisciplinary studies (Russell et al. 2012) are needed – and this requires also that different disciplines are appropriately aware of and can engage in studies of impacts (argument made by Zarnetske et al. 2021 for SAI).
  • Design experiments that look at the case with a cool planet but still high CO2 (Russell et al. 2012, McCormack et al. 2016).
    • How would cooler temperatures plus increased CO2 concentrations influence ocean uptake of CO2 and ocean acidification (McCormack et al. 2016)?
  • More perturbation-oriented field experiments are needed to fill gaps not addressed by analogues (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Determine if aerosol perturbations lead to cloud system responses that offset the effect of brightening clouds (Diamond et al. 2022). Need in situ and remote sensing measurements from small-scale outdoor experiments to inform cloud models. Feingold et al. (2024) provide more details on needed measurements.
  • Determine the spatiotemporal scale of clouds that would work for this technique (susceptible clouds) in order to determine if MCB could have a global impact (Diamond et al. 2022). If susceptible clouds do not exist on a large enough scale to have a global impact, MCB may still be viable for a regional scale (see Marine Cloud Brightening: Arctic). Need to quantify frequency of occurrence of susceptible clouds, their areal coverage, and nature of co-occurring aerosol conditions (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • Satellite/reanalysis studies of susceptible cloud regimes and their frequency of occurrence to address how well the radiative effect of a small-scale MCB experiment will scale up to the planetary scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Develop methods and appropriate timescales for observing the radiative effect of MCB (Diamond et al. 2022).
    • Leveraging satellite, aircraft, and surface remote sensing to investigate the detectability of changes in cloud albedo within the domain of the deliberate seeding experiment (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Routine modeling of real cases to evaluate and refine models, together with model intercomparison projects at the full range of scales from the cloud scale on up to the global scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Understand the impacts of salt addition to the marine boundary layer and subsequent impacts to coastal communities and ecosystems (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Assess the potential for negative remote effects due to large-scale circulation changes (Diamond et al. 2022, mentioned in Latham et al. 2012). This will require understanding atmospheric processes across space and time scales and will necessitate the development of advanced numerical models with improved representation of cloud, aerosol, and chemical processes as well as upgraded computational power and resources (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Laboratory experiments and new facilities to enhance the fidelity of model physics (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Analysis of existing data (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • SRM simultaneously alters top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation. Global cooling or warming is mostly based on TOA effects, but Arctic/regional effects will depend a lot on the surface forcing, including sea ice melting. How can we better estimate the impacts on sea ice?
  • Demonstration that generation and delivery of appropriately sized particles is possible (Diamond et al. 2022, also mentioned in Latham et al. 2012).
    • Requires technological and scientific advances to select desired aerosol size distributions. Controlled small-scale experimentation with deliberate particle release would be necessary to determine feasibility.
  • A small-scale field program to assess the generation of particles at the surface and their delivery into clouds (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Feingold et al. (2024) outlines physical science research needs for MCB.
  • A robust transdisciplinary scientific review process by a global body (UNEP 2023), similar to IPCC that would include regular updates, agreed-upon scenarios of SRM deployment for evaluation, and research into impacts of SRM on humans and natural ecosystems.
  • More interdisciplinary studies (Russell et al. 2012) are needed – and this requires also that different disciplines are appropriately aware of and can engage in studies of impacts (argument made by Zarnetske et al. 2021 for SAI).
  • Design experiments that look at the case with a cool planet but still high CO2 (Russell et al. 2012, McCormack et al. 2016).
    • How would cooler temperatures plus increased CO2 concentrations influence ocean uptake of CO2 and ocean acidification (McCormack et al. 2016)?
  • More perturbation-oriented field experiments are needed to fill gaps not addressed by analogues (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Determine if aerosol perturbations lead to cloud system responses that offset the effect of brightening clouds (Diamond et al. 2022). Need in situ and remote sensing measurements from small-scale outdoor experiments to inform cloud models. Feingold et al. (2024) provide more details on needed measurements.
  • Determine the spatiotemporal scale of clouds that would work for this technique (susceptible clouds) in order to determine if MCB could have a global impact (Diamond et al. 2022). If susceptible clouds do not exist on a large enough scale to have a global impact, MCB may still be viable for a regional scale (see Marine Cloud Brightening: Arctic). Need to quantify frequency of occurrence of susceptible clouds, their areal coverage, and nature of co-occurring aerosol conditions (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • Satellite/reanalysis studies of susceptible cloud regimes and their frequency of occurrence to address how well the radiative effect of a small-scale MCB experiment will scale up to the planetary scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Develop methods and appropriate timescales for observing the radiative effect of MCB (Diamond et al. 2022).
    • Leveraging satellite, aircraft, and surface remote sensing to investigate the detectability of changes in cloud albedo within the domain of the deliberate seeding experiment (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Routine modeling of real cases to evaluate and refine models, together with model intercomparison projects at the full range of scales from the cloud scale on up to the global scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Understand the impacts of salt addition to the marine boundary layer and subsequent impacts to coastal communities and ecosystems (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Assess the potential for negative remote effects due to large-scale circulation changes (Diamond et al. 2022, mentioned in Latham et al. 2012). This will require understanding atmospheric processes across space and time scales and will necessitate the development of advanced numerical models with improved representation of cloud, aerosol, and chemical processes as well as upgraded computational power and resources (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Laboratory experiments and new facilities to enhance the fidelity of model physics (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Analysis of existing data (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • SRM simultaneously alters top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation. Global cooling or warming is mostly based on TOA effects, but Arctic/regional effects will depend a lot on the surface forcing, including sea ice melting. How can we better estimate the impacts on sea ice?
  • Demonstration that generation and delivery of appropriately sized particles is possible (Diamond et al. 2022, also mentioned in Latham et al. 2012).
    • Requires technological and scientific advances to select desired aerosol size distributions. Controlled small-scale experimentation with deliberate particle release would be necessary to determine feasibility.
  • A small-scale field program to assess the generation of particles at the surface and their delivery into clouds (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Feingold et al. (2024) outlines physical science research needs for MCB.
  • A robust transdisciplinary scientific review process by a global body (UNEP 2023), similar to IPCC that would include regular updates, agreed-upon scenarios of SRM deployment for evaluation, and research into impacts of SRM on humans and natural ecosystems.
  • More interdisciplinary studies (Russell et al. 2012) are needed – and this requires also that different disciplines are appropriately aware of and can engage in studies of impacts (argument made by Zarnetske et al. 2021 for SAI).
  • Design experiments that look at the case with a cool planet but still high CO2 (Russell et al. 2012, McCormack et al. 2016).
    • How would cooler temperatures plus increased CO2 concentrations influence ocean uptake of CO2 and ocean acidification? (McCormack et al. 2016)
  • More perturbation-oriented field experiments are needed to fill gaps not addressed by analogues (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Determine if aerosol perturbations lead to cloud system responses that offset the effect of brightening clouds (Diamond et al. 2022). Need in situ and remote sensing measurements from small-scale outdoor experiments to inform cloud models. Feingold et al. (2024) provide more details on needed measurements.
  • Determine the spatiotemporal scale of clouds that would work for this technique (susceptible clouds) in order to determine if MCB could have a global impact (Diamond et al. 2022). If susceptible clouds do not exist on a large enough scale to have a global impact, MCB may still be viable for a regional scale (see Marine Cloud Brightening: Arctic). Need to quantify frequency of occurrence of susceptible clouds, their areal coverage, and nature of co-occurring aerosol conditions (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • Satellite/reanalysis studies of susceptible cloud regimes and their frequency of occurrence to address how well the radiative effect of a small-scale MCB experiment will scale up to the planetary scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Develop methods and appropriate timescales for observing the radiative effect of MCB (Diamond et al. 2022).
    • Leveraging satellite, aircraft, and surface remote sensing to investigate the detectability of changes in cloud albedo within the domain of the deliberate seeding experiment. (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Routine modeling of real cases to evaluate and refine models, together with model intercomparison projects at the full range of scales from the cloud scale on up to the global scale. (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Understand the impacts of salt addition to the marine boundary layer and subsequent impacts to coastal communities and ecosystems (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Assess the potential for negative remote effects due to large-scale circulation changes (Diamond et al. 2022, mentioned in Latham et al. 2012). This will require understanding atmospheric processes across space and time scales and will necessitate the development of advanced numerical models with improved representation of cloud, aerosol, and chemical processes as well as upgraded computational power and resources (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Laboratory experiments and new facilities to enhance the fidelity of model physics. (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Analysis of existing data (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • SRM simultaneously alters top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation. Global cooling or warming is mostly based on TOA effects, but Arctic/regional effects will depend a lot on the surface forcing, including sea ice melting. How can we better estimate the impacts on sea ice?
  • Demonstration that generation and delivery of appropriately sized particles is possible. (Diamond et al. 2022, also mentioned in Latham et al. 2012)
    • Requires technological and scientific advances to select desired aerosol size distributions. Controlled small-scale experimentation with deliberate particle release would be necessary to determine feasibility.
  • A small-scale field program to assess the generation of particles at the surface and their delivery into clouds (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Feingold et al. (2024) outlines physical science research needs for MCB.
  • A robust transdisciplinary scientific review process by a global body (UNEP 2023), similar to IPCC that would include regular updates, agreed-upon scenarios of SRM deployment for evaluation, and research into impacts of SRM on humans and natural ecosystems.
  • More interdisciplinary studies (Russell et al. 2012) are needed – and this requires also that different disciplines are appropriately aware of and can engage in studies of impacts (argument made by Zarnetske et al. 2021 for SAI)
  • Design experiments that look at the case with a cool planet but still high CO2 (Russell et al. 2012, McCormack et al. 2016)
    • How would cooler temperatures plus increased CO2 concentrations influence ocean uptake of CO2 and ocean acidification? (McCormack et al. 2016)
  • More perturbation-oriented field experiments are needed to fill gaps not addressed by analogues (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • Determine if aerosol perturbations lead to cloud system responses that offset the effect of brightening clouds. (Diamond et al. 2022) Need in situ and remote sensing measurements from small-scale outdoor experiments to inform cloud models. Feingold et al. (2024) provide more details on needed measurements.
  • Determine the spatiotemporal scale of clouds that would work for this technique (susceptible clouds) in order to determine if MCB could have a global impact (Diamond et al. 2022). If susceptible clouds do not exist on a large enough scale to have a global impact, MCB may still be viable for a regional scale (see Marine Cloud Brightening: Arctic). Need to quantify frequency of occurrence of susceptible clouds, their areal coverage, and nature of co-occurring aerosol conditions (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • Satellite/reanalysis studies of susceptible cloud regimes and their frequency of occurrence to address how well the radiative effect of a small-scale MCB experiment will scale up to the planetary scale (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Develop methods and appropriate timescales for observing the radiative effect of MCB (Diamond et al. 2022).
    • Leveraging satellite, aircraft, and surface remote sensing to investigate the detectability of changes in cloud albedo within the domain of the deliberate seeding experiment. (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • Routine modeling of real cases to evaluate and refine models, together with model intercomparison projects at the full range of scales from the cloud scale on up to the global scale. (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • Understand the impacts of salt addition to the marine boundary layer and subsequent impacts to coastal communities and ecosystems (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Assess the potential for negative remote effects due to large-scale circulation changes (Diamond et al. 2022, mentioned in Latham et al. 2012). This will require understanding atmospheric processes across space and time scales and will necessitate the development of advanced numerical models with improved representation of cloud, aerosol, and chemical processes as well as upgraded computational power and resources (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Laboratory experiments and new facilities to enhance the fidelity of model physics. (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • Analysis of existing data (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • SRM simultaneously alters top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation. Global cooling or warming is mostly based on TOA effects, but Arctic/regional effects will depend a lot on the surface forcing, including sea ice melting. How can we better estimate the impacts on sea ice?
  • Demonstration that generation and delivery of appropriately sized particles is possible. (Diamond et al. 2022, also mentioned in Latham et al. 2012)
    • Requires technological and scientific advances to select desired aerosol size distributions. Controlled small-scale experimentation with deliberate particle release would be necessary to determine feasibility.
  • A small-scale field program to assess the generation of particles at the surface and their delivery into clouds. (Feingold et al. 2022)

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Enabling conditions

Version published: 
  • A multilateral governance framework for small-scale outdoor experiments with development of norms, guidelines, and codes of conduct (UNEP 2023). See the research governance framework detailed in Jinnah et al. (2024a).
  • Further development of what priorities look like in different places for different actors will be needed.
  • A multilateral governance framework for small-scale outdoor experiments with development of norms, guidelines, and codes of conduct (UNEP 2023). See the research governance framework detailed in Jinnah et al. (2024a).
  • Further development of what priorities look like in different places for different actors will be needed.
  • A multilateral governance framework for small-scale outdoor experiments with development of norms, guidelines, and codes of conduct (UNEP 2023). See the research governance framework detailed in Jinnah et al. (2024a).
  • A multilateral governance framework for small-scale outdoor experiments with development of norms, guidelines, and codes of conduct (UNEP 2023).
  • Further development of what priorities look like in different places for different actors will be needed.

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Engagement

  • Different disciplines need to be aware of MCB and engage in studies of impacts.
  • Promotion of a globally inclusive conversation about SRM (UNEP 2023).
  • Develop international collaborations and frameworks for data sharing (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology’s (COMEST) 2023 Report on the ethics of climate engineering has a slate of recommendations related to SRM covering governance, participation and inclusion, role of scientific knowledge and research strengthening capacity, and education, awareness, and advocacy.
  • Public engagement, education, and town halls about all aspects of the approach need to be developed and implemented in parallel with research in order to determine whether this approach can be implemented.
  • Follow core engagement principles identified by the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) advisory committee (Jinnah et al. 2024a):
    • Start engagement efforts as early as possible.
    • Include social scientists with engagement expertise on research teams during the research design process.
    • Don’t presuppose what communities will be concerned about.
    • Develop a plan to be responsive to community concern.
  • Different disciplines need to be aware of MCB and engage in studies of impacts.
  • Promotion of a globally inclusive conversation about SRM (UNEP 2023).
  • Develop international collaborations and frameworks for data sharing (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology’s (COMEST) 2023 Report on the ethics of climate engineering has a slate of recommendations related to SRM covering governance, participation and inclusion, role of scientific knowledge and research strengthening capacity, and education, awareness, and advocacy.
  • Public engagement, education, and town halls about all aspects of the approach need to be developed and implemented in parallel with research in order to determine whether this approach can be implemented.
  • Follow core engagement principles identified by the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) advisory committee (Jinnah et al. 2024a):
    • Start engagement efforts as early as possible.
    • Include social scientists with engagement expertise on research teams during the research design process.
    • Don’t presuppose what communities will be concerned about.
    • Develop a plan to be responsive to community concern.
  • Different disciplines need to be aware of MCB and engage in studies of impacts.
  • Promotion of a globally inclusive conversation about SRM (UNEP 2023).
  • Develop international collaborations and frameworks for data sharing (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • UNESCO World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology’s (COMEST) 2023 Report on the ethics of climate engineering has a slate of recommendations related to SRM covering governance, participation and inclusion, role of scientific knowledge and research strengthening capacity, and education, awareness, and advocacy.
  • Public engagement, education, and town halls about all aspects of the approach need to be developed and implemented in parallel with research in order to determine whether this approach can be implemented.
  • Follow core engagement principles identified by the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) advisory committee (Jinnah et al. 2024a):
    • Start engagement efforts as early as possible
    • Include social scientists with engagement expertise on research teams during the research design process
    • Don’t presuppose what communities will be concerned about
    • Develop a plan to be responsive to community concern
  • Different disciplines need to be aware of MCB and engage in studies of impacts.
  • Promotion of a globally inclusive conversation about SRM (UNEP 2023).
  • Develop international collaborations and frameworks for data sharing (Diamond et al. 2022).
  • Public engagement, education, and town halls about all aspects of the approach need to be developed and implemented in parallel with research in order to determine whether this approach can be implemented. 
  • Follow core engagement principles identified by the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) advisory committee (Jinnah et al. 2024):
    • Start engagement efforts as early as possible.
    • Include social scientists with engagement expertise on research teams during the research design process.
    • Don’t presuppose what communities will be concerned about.
    • Develop a plan to be responsive to community concern.
  • Follow core engagement principles identified by the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx) advisory committee (Jinnah et al. 2024a):
    • Start engagement efforts as early as possible
    • Include social scientists with engagement expertise on research teams during the research design process
    • Don’t presuppose what communities will be concerned about
    • Develop a plan to be responsive to community concern
  • Different disciplines need to be aware of MCB and engage in studies of impacts.
  • Promotion of a globally inclusive conversation about SRM (UNEP 2023).
  • Develop international collaborations and frameworks for data sharing (Diamond et al. 2022).

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

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