Arctic Sea Ice Road Maps

Knowledge Gaps

Physical science / mechanism

  • Atmosphere-ocean interactions
  • Regional impacts
  • What baseline data should be used (Russell et al. 2012)?
  • Cloud microphysical knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Small-scale cloud processes are currently not well understood, and they are not easy to observe/measure/quantify.
    • Aerosol emissions cause changes to cloud amount through changes in precipitation and evaporation and are known to sometimes enhance and sometimes offset cloud brightening. Improved understanding of these offsets and their prevalence is essential.
    • The efficiency with which aerosol particles can be delivered into clouds to enhance cloud drop number concentrations is uncertain.
  • The optimal aerosol composition, size, and concentration for attaining the desired cloud response is unknown (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Meteorological-aerosol co-variability knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • There is a need to identify and quantify the frequency of occurrence of regions that are highly susceptible to aerosol injections – typically environments supporting thin, layered clouds with low background aerosol concentrations – and to determine whether Arctic responses scale up well enough for a significant regional and global radiative effect.
  • Large-scale knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • There is a lack of adequate tools to assess how small-scale perturbations to cloud brightness might affect larger-scale circulations, and the extent to which these might contribute to regional changes in precipitation and radiative forcing of the climate. Furthermore, the timescales of these feedbacks are poorly quantified.
  • Detection-related knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Given the relatively small aerosol-cloud brightening signals, there is a need to assess how long it would take to detect MCB-related brightening against the background of meteorological variability, and to ascertain whether detection times are short enough for strategies to be changed in response to changing conditions.
    • The adequacy of current and planned future space-based detection systems needs to be determined.
  • Atmosphere-ocean interactions
  • Regional impacts
  • What baseline data should be used (Russell et al. 2012)?
  • Cloud microphysical knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Small-scale cloud processes are currently not well understood, and they are not easy to observe/measure/quantify.
    • Aerosol emissions cause changes to cloud amount through changes in precipitation and evaporation and are known to sometimes enhance and sometimes offset cloud brightening. Improved understanding of these offsets and their prevalence is essential.
    • The efficiency with which aerosol particles can be delivered into clouds to enhance cloud drop number concentrations is uncertain.
  • The optimal aerosol composition, size, and concentration for attaining the desired cloud response is unknown (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Meteorological-aerosol co-variability knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • There is a need to identify and quantify the frequency of occurrence of regions that are highly susceptible to aerosol injections – typically environments supporting thin, layered clouds with low background aerosol concentrations – and to determine whether Arctic responses scale up well enough for a significant regional and global radiative effect.
  • Large-scale knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • There is a lack of adequate tools to assess how small-scale perturbations to cloud brightness might affect larger-scale circulations, and the extent to which these might contribute to regional changes in precipitation and radiative forcing of the climate. Furthermore, the timescales of these feedbacks are poorly quantified.
  • Detection-related knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Given the relatively small aerosol-cloud brightening signals, there is a need to assess how long it would take to detect MCB-related brightening against the background of meteorological variability, and to ascertain whether detection times are short enough for strategies to be changed in response to changing conditions.
    • The adequacy of current and planned future space-based detection systems needs to be determined.
  • Atmosphere-ocean interactions
  • Regional impacts
  • What baseline data should be used? (Russell et al. 2012)
  • Cloud microphysical knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Small-scale cloud processes are currently not well understood, and they are not easy to observe/measure/quantify.
    • Aerosol emissions cause changes to cloud amount through changes in precipitation and evaporation and are known to sometimes enhance and sometimes offset cloud brightening. Improved understanding of these offsets and their prevalence is essential.
    • The efficiency with which aerosol particles can be delivered into clouds to enhance cloud drop number concentrations is uncertain.
  • The optimal aerosol composition, size, and concentration for attaining the desired cloud response is unknown (Feingold et al. 2022).
  • Meteorological-aerosol co-variability knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022).
    • There is a need to identify and quantify the frequency of occurrence of regions that are highly susceptible to aerosol injections – typically environments supporting thin, layered clouds with low background aerosol concentrations – and to determine whether Arctic responses scale up well enough for a significant regional and global radiative effect.
  • Large-scale knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • There is a lack of adequate tools to assess how small-scale perturbations to cloud brightness might affect larger-scale circulations, and the extent to which these might contribute to regional changes in precipitation and radiative forcing of the climate. Furthermore, the timescales of these feedbacks are poorly quantified.
  • Detection-related knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Given the relatively small aerosol-cloud brightening signals, there is a need to assess how long it would take to detect MCB-related brightening against the background of meteorological variability, and to ascertain whether detection times are short enough for strategies to be changed in response to changing conditions.
    • The adequacy of current and planned future space-based detection systems needs to be determined.
  • Atmosphere-ocean interactions
  • Regional impacts
  • What baseline data should be used? (Russell et al. 2012)
  • Cloud microphysical knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Small-scale cloud processes are currently not well understood, and they are not easy to observe/measure/quantify.
    • Aerosol emissions cause changes to cloud amount through changes in precipitation and evaporation and are known to sometimes enhance and sometimes offset cloud brightening. Improved understanding of these offsets and their prevalence is essential.
    • The efficiency with which aerosol particles can be delivered into clouds to enhance cloud drop number concentrations is uncertain.
  • The optimal aerosol composition, size, and concentration for attaining the desired cloud response is unknown (Feingold et al. 2022)
  • Meteorological-aerosol co-variability knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • There is a need to identify and quantify the frequency of occurrence of regions that are highly susceptible to aerosol injections – typically environments supporting thin, layered clouds with low background aerosol concentrations – and to determine whether Arctic responses scale up well enough for a significant regional and global radiative effect
  • Large-scale knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • There is a lack of adequate tools to assess how small-scale perturbations to cloud brightness might affect larger-scale circulations, and the extent to which these might contribute to regional changes in precipitation and radiative forcing of the climate. Furthermore, the timescales of these feedbacks are poorly quantified.
  • Detection-related knowledge gaps (Feingold et al. 2022)
    • Given the relatively small aerosol-cloud brightening signals, there is a need to assess how long it would take to detect MCB-related brightening against the background of meteorological variability, and to ascertain whether detection times are short enough for strategies to be changed in response to changing conditions.
    • The adequacy of current and planned future space-based detection systems needs to be determined.

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Engineering needs (technical feasibility)

Version published: 
  • Need to develop a spraying system/nozzle capable of producing seawater aerosol at the appropriate size distribution (Latham et al. 2012).
  • Delivery system would need to be able to perform for long periods of time at sea and overcome challenges from clogging and adverse weather (Latham et al. 2012).
  • It’s still unknown if the delivery could be done at a large enough area to impact cloud albedo on a scale sufficient to produce cooling (Latham et al. 2012).
  • Need to develop a spraying system/nozzle capable of producing seawater aerosol at the appropriate size distribution (Latham et al. 2012).
  • Delivery system would need to be able to perform for long periods of time at sea and overcome challenges from clogging and adverse weather (Latham et al. 2012).
  • It’s still unknown if the delivery could be done at a large enough area to impact cloud albedo on a scale sufficient to produce cooling (Latham et al. 2012).
  • Need to develop a spraying system/nozzle capable of producing seawater aerosol at the appropriate size distribution (Latham et al. 2012).
  • Delivery system would need to be able to perform for long periods of time at sea and overcome challenges from clogging and adverse weather (Latham et al. 2012).
  • It’s still unknown if the delivery could be done at a large enough area to impact cloud albedo on a scale sufficient to produce cooling (Latham et al. 2012).

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Environmental risks / benefits

Version published: 
  • More research on ecosystem impacts is needed (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do risks compare with risks of continued climate change with no intervention? (Russell et al. 2012)
  • Determine how MCB would impact certain important climate features in the ocean, such as the location of the intertropical convergence zone and oceanic upwelling systems, and subsequent impacts on marine ecosystems and biodiversity (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do changes in freshwater input impact the ocean (acidification, circulation, biodiversity)?
  • Should we be designing MCB for a different target rather than global temperature (e.g., preserving biomes and ecoregions, preserving cold winter temperatures in temperate and polar regions)? See Zarnetske et al. (2021) for the same question raised about stratospheric aerosol injection.
    • UN Sustainable Development Goals (or other biodiversity goals) could inform targets.
  • More research on ecosystem impacts is needed (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do risks compare with risks of continued climate change with no intervention? (Russell et al. 2012)
  • Determine how MCB would impact certain important climate features in the ocean, such as the location of the intertropical convergence zone and oceanic upwelling systems, and subsequent impacts on marine ecosystems and biodiversity (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do changes in freshwater input impact the ocean (acidification, circulation, biodiversity)?
  • Should we be designing MCB for a different target rather than global temperature (e.g., preserving biomes and ecoregions, preserving cold winter temperatures in temperate and polar regions)? See Zarnetske et al. (2021) for the same question raised about stratospheric aerosol injection.
    • UN Sustainable Development Goals (or other biodiversity goals) could inform targets.
  • More research on ecosystem impacts is needed (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do risks compare with risks of continued climate change with no intervention? (Russell et al. 2012)
  • Determine how MCB would impact certain important climate features in the ocean, such as the location of the intertropical convergence zone and oceanic upwelling systems, and subsequent impacts on marine ecosystems and biodiversity (Russell et al. 2012).
  • How do changes in freshwater input impact the ocean (acidification, circulation, biodiversity)?
  • Should we be designing MCB for a different target rather than global temperature (e.g., preserving biomes and ecoregions, preserving cold winter temperatures in temperate and polar regions)? See Zarnetske et al. (2021) for the same question raised about stratospheric aerosol injection.
    • UN Sustainable Development Goals (or other biodiversity goals) could inform targets

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Social risks / benefits

Version published: 
  • Need assessment of societal risks and benefits including community engagement.
  • Need assessment of societal risks and benefits including community engagement.

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

Governance

Projects from Ocean CDR Community

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